Record El Niño is suppressing Atlantic hurricanes while raising Pacific risks
A record-strength El Niño is suppressing Atlantic hurricane formation, while unusually warm Pacific waters and related weather shifts are increasing risks for parts of the Americas and other regions.
By DoomRadar · Published on DoomRadar . Updated .
Based on two sources with available article excerpts. Source-linked claims are not independent confirmation.
What happened
The Atlantic hurricane season has produced no hurricanes by the reporting date, despite an average of four hurricanes, including two major ones, by that point in the season. The previous record for the latest first Atlantic hurricane was September 11. [1]
References for this detail (1)
- Why haven't we had an Atlantic hurricane yet? Thank El Niño.popsci.com · Article published: Sep 28, 2026, 7:04 PM UTC
Scientists described the El Niño developing off South America as more than 3 degrees Celsius above normal, with models expecting it to strengthen further and potentially reach about 4 degrees by November or December. [1]
References for this detail (1)
- Why haven't we had an Atlantic hurricane yet? Thank El Niño.popsci.com · Article published: Sep 28, 2026, 7:04 PM UTC
El Niño is suppressing Atlantic storms through stronger upper-level winds and dry, sinking air over the region. Those conditions can prevent storms from forming and limit the strength or lifespan of any that do develop. [1]
References for this detail (1)
- Why haven't we had an Atlantic hurricane yet? Thank El Niño.popsci.com · Article published: Sep 28, 2026, 7:04 PM UTC
The same climate pattern is producing serious weather contrasts elsewhere. It increases rainfall in places including California and the U.S. Southwest while reducing it in Southeast Asia, the Amazon and parts of Africa. [1]
References for this detail (1)
- Why haven't we had an Atlantic hurricane yet? Thank El Niño.popsci.com · Article published: Sep 28, 2026, 7:04 PM UTC
A Kelvin wave linked to El Niño moves warm water eastward beneath the Pacific surface. When its energy reaches the Americas and travels along the coast, it can raise upper-ocean temperatures and temporarily increase sea levels on low-lying shorelines. [2]
References for this detail (1)
- What is a Kelvin wave? How underwater phenomena impacts sea levels during El Niñofox9.com · Article published: Sep 28, 2026, 8:15 PM UTC
Context from the sources
The Pacific-side risks are not limited to gradual warming: the reporting also describes Hurricane Polo intensifying from a tropical storm to Category 5 in less than a day, an example of rapid intensification. [1]
The reported El Niño is affecting global weather patterns in opposite directions, creating wetter conditions in some areas and substantially drier conditions in others rather than producing one uniform regional outcome. [1]
Explore the sources and reporting timeline
2 source links · 2 domains
These counts describe the references, not independent confirmations. Different outlets can repeat the same original report.
Source timeline
Oldest to newest among the available source dates, not a chronology of the incident. Article publication dates come from the source; other recorded dates may reflect when a link was found.
- [1] Why haven't we had an Atlantic hurricane yet? Thank El Niño.popsci.comReferenced for: detail 1, detail 2, detail 3, detail 4
- [2] What is a Kelvin wave? How underwater phenomena impacts sea levels during El Niñofox9.comReferenced for: detail 5
Questions answered by the reporting
What is a Kelvin wave?
It is an underwater movement of warm water driven eastward by westerly winds; near the Americas, it can raise upper-ocean temperatures and temporarily elevate coastal sea levels. [2]
What this could mean for you
Pacific coastal travel and port operations could face temporary higher water levels or severe weather exposure.
A Kelvin wave can raise upper-ocean temperatures and temporarily elevate sea levels along affected coastlines; El Niño also alters storm and rainfall patterns.
Reported basis: [2] · The possible effect is interpretation.
Depends on: The wave's energy must reach the coast and coincide with locally disruptive weather or high water.
Possible time frame: weeks, if those conditions hold.
Food and water-related costs or availability could become more uneven across affected regions.
El Niño shifts rainfall, increasing drought pressure in some agricultural areas while producing excess rain in others.
Reported basis: [1] · The possible effect is interpretation.
Depends on: The rainfall changes must persist long enough to affect crops, reservoirs or transport.
Possible time frame: months, if those conditions hold.
Heat-related health risks could increase across populations exposed to the broader climate pattern.
The reported El Niño is associated with additional global heat and disrupted weather patterns.
Reported basis: [1] · The possible effect is interpretation.
Depends on: Regional temperatures must rise sufficiently and persist in populated areas.
Possible time frame: months, if those conditions hold.
Possible consequences, not a forecast. Their relevance depends on your location and the conditions above.
For your country
Choose a country to check how this event could affect you.
What changes the outlook
Risk increases if…
Further strengthening of El Niño, as models anticipate, could intensify its rainfall and heat-related effects.
A Kelvin wave reaching low-lying coastlines during another disruptive weather event could increase coastal exposure.
Pressure eases if…
A weakening El Niño would reduce the persistence of its rainfall, heat and coastal effects.
The formation of more Atlantic storms would end the current record delay, although it would not remove the broader Pacific risks.
Still unclear
The sources do not establish how long the Atlantic suppression or Pacific coastal sea-level effects will last.
The eventual number, strength and landfall locations of storms during the remainder of the season are not established.
Market implications
Market impact
Sources (2)
References for the reported details. Separate links do not necessarily mean independent confirmation.
Available excerpt
This story was originally published by Grist. Sign up for Grist’s weekly newsletter here. You are about to time travel. Off the Pacific coast of…A short excerpt from our source record; open the original for the full article.
Available excerpt
As the West Coast prepares to be inundated by a Kelvin Wave as a result of El Niño, here’s what you should know about the…A short excerpt from our source record; open the original for the full article.
AI-assisted analysis · . Based on linked headlines and available excerpts. Methodology · Report an error.